Climate change and related environmental causes may displace up to one billion people by 2050 in a worst-case scenario according to the International Organization for Migration. A lower estimate of 140 million displaced by mid-century appeared in a World Bank study in March 2018 entitled Groundswell. Over the last three decades, the quantity of storms, droughts, and floods has tripled with catastrophic effects on communities in risk-prone areas, particularly in the developing world. This number is expected to accelerate as we approach the middle of the century unless drastic measures are taken for mitigation and adaptation to climate-related disasters. Climate and environmental factors have throughout history led to massive displacements of peoples. The past often can provide us today with useful lessons on human resilience, determination, and adaptability. My blog post of today deals with climate and disaster-related migration in the context of historical fiction that brings the dry figures and facts of history to life.
The novel, The Endless Dawn, set in the Indus Valley of the Second Millennium B.C., portrays the climate changes of the Eurasian steppes, starting with the spread of the northern ice-sheets as a cause for the southern migration of the Indo-European peoples, including those referred to as the Eirya. At the beginning of the novel, we meet a large clan of Eirya, numbering some three thousand souls, about to cross the Kubha Pass, what is today the Khyber Pass, on their way to a new life in a temperate zone. As the novel progresses, we encounter other ecological disasters that affect local populations, including droughts as well as man-made water disasters. What is particularly interesting is how the main characters and those in the background react to these disasters, with stoicism, grit, and determination rather than panic. A must-read for anyone sensitive to human migration and climate change in the modern era. Read here